How to get a better grasp of real reality

Because President Trump in his Truth Social posts often describes a reality I don't recognize and because as a philosophy major I spent considerable time considering reality and tests for it, my attention was caught by a book titled The Perils of Perception: Why We're Wrong About Nearly Everything by Bobby Duffy.

Duffy is the Managing Director of the Ipsos Social Research Institute,  a London-based market research firm. To help clients understand changing markets, Ipsos regularly surveys consumers and this book compares and contrasts opinions about important issues in as many as 14 different countries. 

For example they asked "What proportion of the population of your country is aged sixty-rive or over?" On average Americans guessed 36%; the reality is 14%—a 22 poins difference. At one extreme of the difference between guess and reality, Italians guessed 46%; the reality is 21%. At the other,  the Swedes guessed 33%; the reality is 19%.

The book is filled with such nuggets. Is violence in the world increasing or decreasing? What proportion of your country is Muslim? What does it cost to raise a child? How much do you need to save for retirement? How much tax do the rich pay? "Out of every 100 people aged 20 years or over in your country, how many do you think are either overweight or obese? The average American guess: 50 people. The reality: 66 people.

"What percentage of women and girls aged 15-18 in your country do you think give birth each year?" The average U.S, guess: 24%. The reality is 2.1%. 

One more. "What is the proportion of immigrants among your country's population?" The average U.S, guess is 33%. The reality is 14%.

Some caveats: the book was published in 2018 so the research is ten or more years old. Also apparently the studies were done online, which means respondents had to have access. Nevertheless, I suspect that for all the domestic turmoil Trump has caused, American perceptions and reality have not changed significantly comforting though it might be to believe we have better information.

What is timeless is Duffy's observation that our perceptions are affected by external reality—news, family, friends, entertainment, books, etc., etc.) and our mental equipment that has evolved over millennia. For example, we tend to recall bad news more than good. We tend to believe things that reinforce what we already believe and to ignore or discount things that contradict what we already know.

Read with an open mind, hard as that may be, The Perils of Perception may help readers understand reality better and be less surprised when real reality turns out to be different than they expected.